By Rachel Max ‘24 This past winter, California experienced record-breaking rain and snowfall, caused by what meteorologists are calling an ‘atmospheric river,’ coming after 23 years of intense drought, heatwaves and wildfires. From October 2022 through March 2023, the West Coast was pummeled with 31 of these ‘atmospheric rivers,’ causing extreme flooding in many parts of California and blizzard conditions across the West Coast.
Many initially welcomed the precipitation, as California and the Southwestern United States have experienced a record-breaking megadrought since 2000, which researchers now say is the worst drought the region has experienced in 1,200 years. However, the initial excitement over the rain quickly evaporated as the flooding proved deadly, with at least 12 dead so far and thousands more losing their property and livelihoods. Among the most drastic effects of these floods was the complete reappearance of the long-emptied Tulare Lake, which began to dry up in the late 1800s as a result of water being diverted for agriculture. For decades now, the former Tulare Lake Basin has been used as fertile farmland in California’s famous Central Valley. As a result of the flooding, however, the “phantom lake” reappeared, with around 30 square miles of farmland fully covered in waters that rose above entire homes and buildings, with no sign of receding anytime soon. While this drastic change in weather is not entirely out of the ordinary, as California typically has dry summers and wet winters, the intensity of the swing from megadrought to extreme flooding is quite unusual and likely related to global heating and the climate crisis. This pattern is dubbed “precipitation whiplash” by climate scientists, in which both extremes of weather become more intense. This is because global heating does not just cause the seasons to get hotter — it also adds more moisture to the Earth’s atmospheric system, and that combination of excess heat and excess moisture causes weather patterns to become more volatile. “Climate change is loading the weather dice against us,” said atmospheric scientist and Texas Tech University professor Dr. Katharine Hayhoe. “We always have a chance of rolling a double six: a hurricane or a heat wave. As the Earth warms, the chances of getting a six or a seven increases." This warning was supported by climate scientist and UCLA professor Dr. Daniel Swain, who said, “Climate change today has probably already doubled the risk of an extremely severe storm sequence in California.” A number of factors could potentially lead to even more extreme weather. Much of the snow from previous blizzards has still not melted in California’s mountains and hill-country, which could cause more flooding and possibly even dangerous mudslides when it finally begins to melt. The Southwest is also facing the terrifying likelihood of the Colorado River drying up, which provides valuable water for drinking and agriculture to seven states and many more tribal nations. Several of the reservoirs along the Colorado River, including Lake Mead and Lake Powell, are already close to drying up, and within theCalifornia, more dying reservoirs include Lake Oroville, Lake Hughes and Lake Elizabeth. Climatologists additionally expect that later this year, the pattern of ocean temperatures over the Pacific Ocean could shift from what is called “La Niña,” which causes dry conditions in North America’s West Coast, to the “El Niño” stage, which causes wetter conditions in North America’s West Coast. With all of these factors combined, it is unclear what exactly may be in store for battered California and the West Coast next, but scientists say that with the advent of the climate crisis, we should expect to see extreme weather disasters of this sort far more frequently. This ominous prediction was echoed by Dr. Stephanie Herring of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, who warned that “research is showing that these extreme heat events are also likely to become the new normal in the not too distant future.”
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February 2024
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