Why Murphy Almost Lost

By Boaz Fox ‘23
On Nov. 3, 2021, New Jersey Governor Phil Murphy won re-election after an extremely close race. Murphy came ridiculously close to losing the election, though, due to a weak campaign in what should normally have been an easy race.

Before the election, Murphy lead in the polls by double-digit margins, and was expected to defeat his opponent, former New Jersey State Rep. Jack Ciattarelli. Yet, Murphy won by barely 3 percent of the vote.
New Jersey is a solid blue state that has not voted for a Republican president in decades. In a state with nearly 9 million voters, registered Democrats outnumber Republicans by over 1 million. 
Murphy’s campaign falsely believed that the high ratio of Democrats to Republicans would be enough to win the election, leading them to fail to properly motivate his party’s base and supporters. In some urban areas, which Democrats count on to get most of their votes, Murphy’s margin of victory fell 20 percent, compared to his original election in 2017. 
Even with suburban areas giving Murphy a stronger lead, total Democratic participation in the vote was “significantly below” what it was four years ago, John Froonjian, executive director of the William J. Hughes Center for Public Policy at Stockton University, said. 
Murphy’s shortcomings in urban areas can be tied to anger at his school policies during the pandemic. Many parents were unsatisfied with virtual learning, especially in impoverished urban areas, where the time and equipment necessary for virtual learning is limited.
Murphy’s opponent, Jack Ciattarelli, garnered votes for many other issues surrounding education. He spoke aggressively against critical race theory in schools’ curricula. While this critical race theory is practically non-existent in New Jersey public education, the issue was an extremely popular one among Republicans in New Jersey and nationwide. Republican opposition to masks and vaccine mandates also helped bolster Ciattarelli’s campaign. 
All of these issues heavily excited the state’s Republican base and attracted many Independents to Ciattarelli’s side. 
Murphy also nearly lost because of a failure to advertise. Ciattarelli took advantage of advertisements, leading to an aggressive marketing campaign. It was nearly impossible to avoid seeing Ciattarelli’s constant, antagonistic ads. Murphy, on the other hand, struggled to keep up. 
Advertising was not the only way in which Ciattarelli successfully publicized himself. He was a far more aggressive campaigner than Murphy, often working for 16 hours a day.
Ciattarelli’s campaign focused on popular issues like property taxes and the lack of affordability in the state, one of the most popular issues for New Jersey voters, and one that consistently hurts Democrat gubernatorial candidates. Murphy failed to properly respond.
“Ignoring the affordability issue was malpractice,” Julie Roginsky, a former top Murphy campaign aide, said.
Ciattarelli was also able to blame Murphy’s pandemic response for a lackluster economy, an attack that Murphy could not counter. Overall, Ciattarelli’s campaign was able to portray Murphy as an out-of-touch wealthy liberal, a message that helped Ciattarelli garner votes in many key areas.
But Ciattarelli’s campaign was not perfect, and Murphy can thank Ciattarelli’s mistakes for his victory. Ciattarelli did not run a diverse campaign, and thus failed to attract non-white voters in an ethnically diverse state. If he had succeeded in doing so, many urban voters would have voted for him rather than for Murphy.
Murphy’s campaign was marred by a lack of advertising, a failure to combat Republican criticisms, and a lack of voter excitement caused by a false sense of security. Democrats must learn from these grave errors or risk facing an almost certain defeat at the polls in the next election.