By Oren Ramer ‘22 Every year, former NFL quarterback and current analyst Chris Simms receives much internet attention when he releases his NFL Draft quarterback rankings. His rankings typically differ, sometimes wildly, from the general consensus among the other draft analysts. While it may be easy to dismiss Simms as someone who is merely trying to get attention or clicks by giving “hot takes,” his track record in regard to evaluating quarterbacks cannot be ignored. In this year’s draft, nearly every analyst agrees that Trevor Lawrence, out of Clemson, is the number one prospect, both in terms of quarterbacks and generally. The only common disagreement among analysts is how big the gap is between Lawrence and their second-ranked prospect. In terms of the second-ranked quarterback, most analysts have either BYU’s Zach Wilson or Ohio State’s Justin Fields as their highest-ranked quarterback besides Lawrence. There is less of a consensus on who is the best prospect besides the aforementioned three quarterbacks, but the three most common quarterbacks mentioned are Trey Lance from North Dakota State, Alabama’s Mac Jones and Florida’s Kyle Trask.
As per usual, Simms’ rankings were wildly different from the consensus. This year Simms’s rankings are as follows: Zach Wilson, Trevor Lawrence, Mac Jones, Kellen Mond, Justin Fields and finally Trey Lance. Crazy, right? Despite these outlandish rankings, Simms has earned the right to be taken seriously. In recent years, his quarterback rankings have consistently been more accurate than the consensus rankings at the time. For example, the 2018 NFL draft had one of the most hyped quarterback classes of all time, with four quarterbacks going in the top ten picks and five quarterbacks going in the first round. The last pick of these five quarterbacks, Lamar Jackson, was viewed by most as a much worse prospect than the other four first-round quarterbacks despite winning the Heisman Trophy while at Louisville. Some teams who considered drafting him actually wanted to move him to running back because they did not believe he was a good enough passer to play quarterback in the NFL. Despite this, Simms went against the consensus and had Jackson ranked as his number one quarterback prospect, and was widely ridiculed for it. Three years later, Jackson has already won an MVP and has led the Ravens to the playoffs in all three of his seasons. The only quarterback from that class who has been even close to as good as Jackson is Josh Allen, the third quarterback drafted, and he was Simms’ second-ranked quarterback. The third-best quarterback from that class has been Baker Mayfield, who was Simms’ third-ranked quarterback. Simms then had Sam Darnold and Josh Rosen ranked fourth and fifth, respectively, and they have both had the least success in the NFL out of those five quarterbacks. Simms clearly nailed his rankings for this class. 2018 was not the only year where Simms was correct. In 2017, he predicted that Patrick Mahomes would be the best quarterback in that class, despite most people ranking Mahomes as the third-best quarterback in that class. Obviously, that prediction turned out accurate. Simms’ 2020 quarterback rankings are looking good one year in. Joe Burrow and Justin Herbert have been the two best quarterbacks in that class. They were Simms’ first and second-ranked quarterbacks respectively despite most analysts ranking Tua Tagovailoa over Herbert. So while many think Simms’ rankings are bizarre, it is clear that he should at least be given the benefit of the doubt, as his past rankings have at least been very accurate, if not downright prophetic. If Wilson turns out to be the best quarterback in the class, Mond exceeds expectations and Lance is flipping burgers at your local McDonald’s, Simms will rightfully be saying, “I told you so.” Comments are closed.
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EditorsArielle Karni Archives
December 2024
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